João Paulo Nicolini Gabriel

Dawisson Elvécio Belém Lopes

THE MIDDLE POWER TRAP AND THE STRUGGLE FOR STATUS: How the Nonproliferation regime hampered the aspirations of emerging regional powers

Ciência Política

Instituições Políticas e Política Internacional

21/12/2023

Prof. Dr. Dawisson Elvécio Belém Lopes - Orientador (DCP/UFMG)
Prof. Dr. Pierre Vercauteren (Université de Liège)
Prof. Dr. Aziz Tuffi Saliba (UFMG)
Profa. Drª. Elena Aoun (Université Catholique de Louvain)
Prof. Dr. Sebastian Santander (Université de Liège)

This research investigates if the establishment of international regimes produces side effects on the scientific development of emerging regional powers. To address this puzzle, this work delves into the nonproliferation regime during the Cold War. It was the period when nonproliferation mechanisms were established because several states demonstrated interest in the nuclear field. By undertaking a qualitative research design to assess the reasoning behind the reluctance of emerging regional powers to abide by nonproliferation rules, this study unveils the existence of a structural-level causal mechanism named the Middle Power Trap (MPT). It refers to great powers' attempts to make other states acquiesce to their international rules to preserve the status quo and thereby, persuade them to diplomatically behave like traditional middle powers who respect norms and raise issues inside prescribed organizations. Such a theoretical contribution refines critical International Relations (IR) approaches to stigmatization and disputes for status. Hence, this work analyzes the nuclear histories of Brazil to observe how emerging regional powers coped with external forces hindering their scientific development. This study tries to explain the observed outcome in Brazilian history (acquiesced to the nonproliferation instruments) by undertaking a process-tracing analysis. Finally, I reinforce the inference depicting a shadow case: the Indian nuclear history.

Brazilian Nuclear Program, International Regimes, International Relations, Middle Power Trap, Nuclear Proliferation, Scientific Development