Eduardo Ryo Tamaki

Mario Fuks

The Populist Allure: An Analysis of the Populism in Bolsonaro's Government Speeches (2019 2020)

Ciência Política

Comportamento Político e Opinião Pública

17/12/2021

Prof. Dr. Mario Fuks - Orientador (DCP/UFMG)
Prof. Dr. Kirk A. Hawkins - Coorientador (Brigham Young University)
Prof. Dr. Bruno Castanho Silva (University of Cologne)
Profa. Drª. Aline Burni Pereira Gomes (German Development Institute)

In 2018, after years of political crisis and corruption scandals, a series of events led to a perfect storm, which culminated with the election of the former army captain and far-right politician, Jair Bolsonaro, to the head of the largest democracy in the world. In that moment of crisis, benefiting from the rampant dissatisfaction with the entire political class from left to right, the sight of populism as a redemptive face of democracy was likely to emerge, and Bolsonaro made sure of it. As previous studies have shown, Bolsonaro's campaign speeches are moderately populist, presenting a combination of nationalist and patriotic elements that, at times, overshadow its populism. However, once in power, how Bolsonaro behaves? In other words, can we consider his discourse during the first two years as the 38th President of Brazil, populist? And if so, what are the marks of his populism? Does the patriotism and nationalism from his campaign speeches carry over to his first two years in government? These are the three main questions asked in this thesis. Conceptually, it starts with an ideational definition, according to which populism is to be found in the realm of ideas. It combines three necessary and sufficient elements: (i) a Manichaean and moral cosmology; (ii) the creation and defense of the people as a homogenous and virtuous community; and (iii) the framing of an elite as a corrupt and self-serving entity. Next, to answer the questions raised, this thesis focuses on Bolsonaro's discourse as the 38th President of Brazil. For that, I use content analysis to classify his official speeches and live streams over the period of 2019 and 2020. In total, it was coded and analyzed 94 speeches: 51 official discourses, and 43 live streams. The method follows the Holistic Grading method of textual analysis, which was paired with a rubric designed to identify and measure the qualities associated with the different dimensions of populism. Results indicate that much like his presidential campaign, Bolsonaro's discourse remains somewhat populist, scoring on the lower end of what we could consider as a barely populist. Although exhibiting the three necessary and sufficient elements of populism, Bolsonaro does not consistently articulate them. Despite his moderate level of populism, Bolsonaro's rhetoric presents more nationalist and patriotic elements, more in line with the military governments of Latin America during the Cold War. Bolsonaro's discourse evokes the idea of guardianship, rallying the nation to stand against those who threaten it, topped with a rationale that rests on the idea of defending the fatherland against forces of subversion. Furthermore, the very idea of the people is construed in a way that is more influenced by the use of nationalist and patriotic rhetoric as opposed to Manichaean discourse at times. In the end, the populist the people end up playing second fiddle to other preferred terms.

Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, Nationalism, Patriotism, Populism